Weekly Chart: SP500 vs. US 2Y10Y Yield Curve

Historically, research has shown that the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates (‘Yield Curve’ or ‘Time Spread’) has shown some significant negative relationship with subsequent real economic activity in the United States, with a lead of about four to six quarters. Hence, with the current low levels of the US yield curves (2Y10Y or 5Y30Y), we chose today this week to overlay the 2Y10Y yield curve with the SP500.

If we say that low yield curves tend to predict recessions, then the question now relies on quantifying a low level of the yield curve. We hear from many analysts that the current levels are very low, however if we look back at 40 years of data, the US yield curve levels are not that far away from their long-term averages. For instance, the 2Y10Y and 5Y30Y slopes are currently trading at 51bps and 53bps, while their LT averages stand at 95bps and 82bps, respectively (see here). One main reason why yield curves have been crashing over the past few months is mainly due to an increase in the front-end of the US curve on a back of a shift in expectations of monetary policy. The US 2Y interest rate is now trading at 1.96%, its highest level since September 2008. On the other hand, the 10Y yield stands at 2.46%, has been ranging between 2% and 2.6% over the past year and is up 110bps from its historical low of 1.36% reached in July 2016.

The chart below shows the importance that even if the yield curve turns negative in the US, the equity market has still upside potential in the following months. In our first observation, the 2Y10Y time spread went negative in February 2000, while the SP500 continued its rally and reached a peak in September the same year. In the second one, the yield curve inverted in June 2006 (if we ignore the Jan-Mar 2006 episode) while equities continued to rise for more than a year, peaked in October 2007, and the US plunged into the Great Depression in December 2007.

We don’t think that the current levels of the yield curves are actually alarming for the US economy and we may see a potential floor in the first quarter of this year as we believe that market participants’ (over)excitement on the Fed potential hikes will ease in the medium term. The probability of 4 or more hikes has soared to 12.1%, which pushed the front end of the US curve on the upside and explains the sharp flattening we saw in 2017 (from 1.27% to 0.5%). However, if we look at the EuroDollar futures market, the December 2018 contract currently trades at 97.81, suggesting that investors are pricing in a ST interest rate of 2.19% by the end of the year (see here). This analysis also confirms our bearish view on the US Dollar for 2018 (especially against the Euro).

Chart: SP500 (yellow, rhs) vs. US 2Y10Y Yield Curve (Source: Reuters Eikon)

Yield Curve.PNG

Retracing the US Dollar Q4 rise…

An important topic that has been making the headline over the past few weeks is the new surge of the US Dollar (vis-à-vis the major currencies) in the last quarter of 2016. Since its Obama Rise peak that occurred in mid-March 2015 (after a 25% appreciation), the US Dollar has been ranging against most of the major currencies (except the British pound due to political uncertainty and post-Brexit effect in June, and more recently the Mexican peso). The main reason for that long period of stagnation, in my opinion, was a shift in expectations of monetary policy in the US. After the Fed stepped out of the Bond Market (on October 28th 2014), market’s participants have been mainly focusing on the short-end of the curve, questioning themselves if the Fed was going to start a tightening monetary policy cycle. We saw a hike in December 2015 (25bps), which was immediately halted due to the market sell-off that followed afterwards (13% drawdown in US equities, 20% in Europe and Japan…). Therefore, the implied probability of a second hike in 2016 crashed, which was confirmed by the 7 FOMC meetings that followed (i.e. status quo).

Then, interest in the US Dollar started to emerge again in Q4 2016; the greenback experienced a 8%+ appreciation between October 1st and its December high of 13.65 (28th) according to the DXY index (Chart 1). There are a number of explanations to that recent surge: market was gradually pricing in a rate hike for the December meeting, political uncertainty rising in Europe or Infinite QE in Japan to protect the yield curve. All these stories make sense to explain the Dollar appreciation, therefore let’s retrace the important events that occurred in the last quarter of 2016.

Chart 1. US Dollar index in 2015-2016 (Source: Bloomberg)

usdollarhis

  1. Higher inflation and a positive post-Trump effect

First of all, the rebound in oil prices relieved pressure on energy-related companies [that have been falling one by one, applying to Chapter 11 bankruptcy] and had a positive effect on expected inflation. The price of a barrel has doubled since its February’s low of $26 and is currently trading slightly below $54 (Chart 2, red line) and obviously relieved US policymakers’ inflation anxiety. The 5Y5Y inflation swap forward (Chart 2, white line) stands now at 2.42%, higher than the 1.80% recorded last June. As a consequence, US long-term yields followed the move and the 10-year Treasury yield surged from a low of 1.36% reached in July last year to 2.44% today. With the unemployment rate below 5% and a Q3 GDP growth of 3.5% (annual QoQ), it seems inflation had been the main concern of the Fed’s officials in order to start tightening [again].

Therefore, on December 14th, US policymakers decide to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps to 0.5%-0.75% [and the discount rate from 1% to 1.25%], repeating a gradual policy path plan with three potential hikes in 2017. Even though it was considered to be the most ‘priced in’ hike of any Fed meeting ever, it pushed the implied rates to the upside with the current OIS (Chart 3, purple line) trading almost 1 percent above the OIS at the September meeting (Chart 3, red line). This change in implied rates was reflected in the Dollar appreciation.

Chart 2. US inflation overlaid with Oil Prices and US 10-year yield (Source: Bloomberg)

inflationus

Chart 3. Fed’s dot plot and implied rates (Source: Bloomberg)

FedPlot.JPG

I wasn’t very surprised when the Fed officials announced the rate hike, however I was wondering if we would have seen such optimism if equity markets ‘followed’ the global bond sell-off after the election (Trump effect). The positive US equity market reaction to Trump’s victory also comforted US policymakers for the December’s hike; I strongly believe that the decision would have been much harder if they had to deal with a sudden equity sell-off. Instead, the SP500 reached new record highs (2,277) last months.

One explanation of this development is based on investors’ expectation of an expansionary fiscal policy that will boost economic growth and inflation in the future, which are usually positive news for equities and negative news for bonds in theory (see Four Quadrants matrix – image 1).

Image 1. The ‘Four Quadrants’ framework (Source: Gavekal Research)

  Quandrant.png

   2. Political uncertainty rising in Europe, the rigger of many ‘forgotten’ problems

A popular trade that was running in the last quarter of 2016 was to be long the Italian-German 10-year spread ahead of the Italian referendum that occurred on December 4th. Market was pricing a potential rejection (55% chance), leading to an increase in political uncertainty in Europe, rising spreads between periphery and core and weakening the Euro.

If we look at Chart 4, we can see that the spike in the Italian 10-year yield (Chart 4, white line) could explain the Euro weakness (hence, USD strength). While the 10-year yield increased from 1.20% to 2.20% in two months (October and November), EURUSD (Chart 4, red line, inverted) went down 7 figures and reached a new low of 1.0350 post-referendum (59.1% of voters rejected the reform bill, which was followed immediately by PM Renzi’s resignation).

Even though yields have been decreasing over the past month (the 10-year now standing at 1.73%), political uncertainty could be the trigger of the two ‘delayed’  and ‘forgotten’ issues [or Black Swans] in Europe: the weak banking system and the Sovereign debt crisis. Not only Italy (in this case) cannot survive with higher yields (the country has 2.34 trillion EUR of outstanding debt – 132.6% of GDP – which needs to be rolled with low yields), but a sell-off in equities will increase the percentage of NPLs and potentially forced their banks to bail-in their depositors. The failure of Monte Paschi di Siena’s plan to raise 5-billion euros in capital from the market was ‘solved’ by a Nationalization (the bank’s third bailout). It was announced that the government will own at least 75% of the common equity after the bank is nationalized, a rescue that will cost the Italian government (i.e. taxpayers) about 6.6bn Euros according to the ECB (4.6bn Euros are needed to meet capital requirements and 2bn Euros to compensate the retail bondholders).

Therefore, I strongly believe that we will hear other similar stories in the year to come, as Italy is not the only country facing non-performing loans (NPLs) issues that affect the banking sector. Therefore, political uncertainty in Europe will weigh on the single currency and increase investors’ interest to the US Dollar.

Chart 4. Italian 10-year yield versus EURUSD (inv.) (Source: Bloomberg)

ItalyandEuro.JPG

   3. The weakness in the Japanese Yen

In Japan, the BoJ introduced the ‘Yield Control’ operation in order to stabilize the steepness of the JGB yield curve, offering to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields to prevent a significant surge in rates. This is kind of a puzzle, as Japan Officials cannot afford higher yields [as many indebted developed nations], however too-low yields impact revenues of the banking system and the pension / mutual funds.

I don’t think the particular surge in USDJPY was explained by this new ‘BoJ Operation’ and I prefer to say that the Yen depreciation was a result of a Risk-on effect post-US election result in addition to the recent spike in US yields. USDJPY (Chart 5, candlesticks) trades above 117 and equities (Chart 5, red line) are above the 19,000 level for the first time since September 2015; and you can see how the increase in US yields (Chart 5, blue line) is ‘responsible’ to the Yen weakness.

The question now is to know if the late Q4 Yen weakness will persist in early 2017, with USDJPY pair attracting more and more momentum investors looking to hit the 125 resistance. We know historically that the [positive] trend on the USDJPY can halt [and reverse] very quickly if investors are suddenly skeptical about the global macro situation (Fed delaying its 2017 hike path, China liquidity issues or rising yields in peripheral European countries). On the top of that, if market starts to price in inflation in 2017, will the BoJ be able to counter a JGB tantrum and keep the 10-year JGB yield at around 0%?

One important thing about this recent Yen weakness though is that it allows the Japanese government to buy time in order to implement new reforms and increase productivity. If you remember well, Abe stated in September 2015 his 20% increase in Japan GDP in the medium term (increase from 500tr to 600tr Yen in 5 years).

Chart 5. USDJPY, Nikkei 225 and US 10-year yield (Source: Bloomberg)

OverallJapan.JPG

   4. The Chinese Yuan devaluation

Another currency that has been making the headlines is the Chinese Yuan. Over the past year, the Chinese Yuan has shed roughly 7 percent of its value against the greenback (Chart 6, USDCNY in candlesticks). At the same FX reserves (Chart 6, blue line) have been shrinking; reserves plunged by $69.1bn to $3.05tr in November (most in 10 months), bringing the reduction in the stockpile to almost USD 1tr from a record $4 trillion reach in June 2014. As Horseman Capital noted in their article on China (Is China running out of money?), if FX reserves continue to plummet and the PBoC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, Chinese officials will face some difficult choices. One option would be to raise interest rates (the benchmark one-year lending rate stands currently at 4.35%) in order to reduce outflows and attract interest in the Yuan (high interest rate differential vs. the other countries). This would have a negative effect on the country’s growth outlook, which is already concerning the developed economies due to the high levels of corporate debt and overheated property markets. Another option would be to reduce the holding of deposits by cutting the reserve requirement rate (RRR) which stands currently at 17%. We can see in Chart 7 that the Asset-Liabilities spread (represented by Foreign Currency Assets and Deposits from Other banks) has narrowed drastically over the past year, therefore cutting the reserve rates for banks could be a temporary solution for the PBoC. The problem of the second option is that it will continue to weaken the Chinese Yuan vis-à-vis the US Dollar, which could increase political tensions between US and China.

Interestingly, an asset that has [sort-of] tracked the USDCNY move this year is the Bitcoin (Chart 6, red line) , which raised from $400 in January last year to over $1,000 today. The cryptocurrency was described as the ‘good’ instrument to circumvent capital control in China in periods of large capital outflows like today. Like gold, Bitcoin is readily available in China and can be sold for foreign currencies without problems and therefore have attracted a lot of buyers over the past year.

Chart 6. USDCNY, Bitcoin and Chinese FX reserves (Source: Bloomberg)

ChinaOver.JPG

Chart 7. PBoC Balance Sheet (Source: Horseman Capital)

PBoCBaS.JPG

To conclude, there are several factors explaining the US Dollar strength in the last quarter of 2016, and it looks like the trend should continue in early 2017 (extreme monetary policy divergence to persist in 2017, black swan events coming from Europe, difficulties of Chinese officials to deal with the capital outflows…). However its trend cannot persist indefinitely as we know that it will eventually have negative effect on the US economy in the long term. For instance, we know that a strong dollar hurts US companies’ earnings, which is already a problem if we look at the 12-month forward earnings (Chart 8, green line). In addition, if long-term interest rates increase persistently in the future (breaking through the 3-percent level seen in the 2013 taper tantrum), the US could face a budget crisis: how is the government going to fund its budget deficit [which is expected to grow over USD 1 trillion again under Trump presidency] if China and other central banks are liquidating US Paper at record pace?

Chart 8. SP500 overlaid with 12-month forward earnings (Source: Bloomberg)

ForwardEarnings.JPG

Eyes on Yellen (and global macro)

As we are getting close to the FOMC statement release, I was reading some articles over the past couple of days to understand the recent spike in volatility. Whether it is coming from a ‘Brexit’ fear scenario, widening spreads between core and peripheral countries in the Eurozone (German 10Y Bund now trading negative at -0.5bps), disappointing news coming from US policymakers this evening or more probably from something that I don’t know, I came across some interesting data.

First of all, I would like to introduce an indicator that is getting more and more popular these days: Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator (CAI). This indicator gives a more accurate reflection of the nation’s GDP and can be used in near real-time due to its intra-month updates. It incorporates 56 indicators, and showed a 1-percent drop in May to 1.2% due to poor figures in the labor market and ISM manufacturing data (see chart below).

Chart 1. Goldman CAI (Source: Bloomberg)

GoldCAI.png

The implied probability of a rate hike tonight is less than 2% according to the CME Group FedWatch, and stands only at 22.5% for the July meeting. If we have a look at the Fed Dot Plot’s function in Bloomberg, we can see that the implied FF rates curve has decreased (purple line) compare to where it was after the last FOMC meeting (red line), meaning that the market is very reluctant to a rate hike in the US.

Chart 2. US Feds Dot Plot vs. Implied FF rates (Source: Bloomberg)

ImpliedRates.png

June hike, why not?

Many people have tried to convince me of a ‘no June hike’ scenario, however I try to understand why it isn’t a good moment for Yellen to tighten. Oil (WTI CL1) recovered sharply from its mid-February lows ($26/bbl) and now trades slightly below $48 (decreasing the default rate of the US high-yield companies), the US Dollar has been very quiet over the past 18 months (therefore not hurting the US companies’ earnings), the SP500 index is still trading above 2000, the unemployment rate stands at 4.7% (at Full employment) and the Core CPI index came in at 2.1% YoY in April.

However, it seems that US policymakers may have some other issues in mind: is it Eurozone and its collapsing banking sector, Brexit fear (i.e. no action until the referendum is released), CNY series of devaluation or Japanese sluggish market (i.e. JPY strength)?

The negative yield storm

According to a Fitch analysis, the amount of global sovereign debt trading with negative yields surpassed 10tr USD in May, with now the German 10Y Bund trading at -0.5%bps. According to DB research (see chart below), the German 10Y yield is the ‘simple indicator of a broken financial system’ and joins the pessimism in the banks’ strategy department. It seems that there has never been so much pessimism concerning the market’s outlook (12 months) coming from the sell-side research; do the sell-side firms now agree with the smart money managers (Carl Icahn, Stan Druckenmiller, Geroge Soros..)?

Chart 3. German 10Y Bund yield (Source: DB)

10Y bund DB.jpg

ECB Bazooka

In addition, thanks to the ECB’s QE (and CSPP program), there are 16% of Europe’s IG Corporate Bonds’ yield trading in negative territory, which represents roughly 440bn Euros out of the outstanding 2.8tr Euros according to Tradeweb data. If this situation remains, sovereign bonds will trade even more negative in the coming months, bringing more investors in the US where the 10Y stands at 1.61% and the 30Y at 2.40%. If we look at the yield curve, we can see that the curve flattened over the past year can investors could expect potentially LT US rates to decrease to lower levels if the extreme MP divergence continues, which can increase the value of Gold to 1,300 USD per ounce.

Chart 4. US Yield Curve (Flattened over the past year)

USIYC.png

(Source: Bloomberg)

Poor European equities (and Banks)

However, it seems that the situation is still very poor for European equities, Eurostoxx 50 is down almost 10% since the beginning of June, led by the big banks trading at record lows (Deutsche Bank at €13.3 a share, Credit Suisse at €11.70 a share). The situation is clearly concerning when it comes to banks in Europe, and until we haven’t restructured and/or deleveraged these banks, systemic risk will endure, leaving equities flat (despite 80bn Euros of money printing each month). Maybe Yellen is concerned about the European banks?

Brexit?

Another issue that could explain a status quo tonight could be the rising fear of a Brexit scenario. According to the Brexit poll tracker, leave has gained ground over the closing stages, (with 47% of polls for ‘Brexit’ vs. 44% for ‘Bremain’). This new development sent back the pound to 1.41 against the US Dollar, and we could potentially see further Cable weakness toward 1.40 in the coming days ahead of the results. Many people see a Brexit scenario very probable, raising the financial and contagions risks and the longer-term impact on global growth. It didn’t stop the 10Y UK Gilt yield to crater (now trading at 1.12%, vs. 1.6% in May), however a Brexit surprise could continue to send the 5Y CDS to new highs (see below).

Figure 1.  FT’s Brexit poll tracker (Source: Financial Times)

Brexit.JPG

Chart 5. UK 5Y CDS (Source: Bloomberg)

5YCDSUK.JPG

CNY devaluation: a problem for US policymakers?

Eventually, another problem is the CNY devaluation we saw since the beginning of April. The Chinese Yuan now stands now at its highest level since February 2011 against the greenback (USDCNY trading at around 6.60). I am sure the Fed won’t mention it in its FOMC statement, but this could also be a reason for not tightening tonight.

Conclusion: a rate hike is still possible tonight

To conclude, I am a bit skeptical why the market is so reluctant for a rate hike this evening, and I still think there is a chance of a 25bps hike based on the current market situation. I don’t believe that a the terrible NFP print (38K in May) could change the US policymakers’ decision. Moreover, even though we saw a bit of volatility in the past week (VIX spiked to 22 yesterday), equities are still trading well above 2,000 (SP500 trading at 2,082 at the moment) and the market may not be in the same situation in July or September.

Ahead of the ECB and Fed meetings: watch the VIX

In this very quiet week, the SP500 is once again ‘playing’ with the 2,100 level and I strongly believe that it could be a perfect time to go short if you think about the upside / downside risk. There are many events coming up starting with the ECB meeting tomorrow and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. I guess we could see some volatility coming from these events which could impact equities and the FX market. As I wrote here, we saw that usually EURUSD tends to be positively correlated to sudden rise in volatility. Even though we expect the ECB to keep its rates steady (deposit at -0.4%, refi at 0% and marginal lending facility at 0.25%) with no increase in the current 80-billion-euro QE program, the market may react negatively during Draghi’s conference starting 1.30pm. Once again, the ECB could disappoint, leading to equities sell-off and some Euro appreciation. As you can see it in the chart below, EURUSD has entered in a bearish trend since May 3rd, decreasing by 5 figures until it hit its 200-SMA (yellow line) at 1.11. It has been trading within a 90-pip range over the past 3 days and I expect the currency pair to stay rangy today as well; however I would pay attention to the potential spike we can see tomorrow. The first strong resistance on the upside stands at 1.1250, a breakout could directly lead us towards the 1.1350 – 1.1400 range.

EURUSD

(Source: Bloomberg)

In addition, US non-farm payrolls could disappoint on Friday (Bloomberg survey at 160K) leading to another round of equity sell-off, sending the US 10-year yield back below 1.8% and pushing the Euro to higher levels. If we look back at the beginning-the-year sell-off in the chart below, the SP500 (candlesticks) fell by more than 200pts, the US 10-year (red line) crashed from 2.3% to 1.66% while the Euro (green line) surged by 7 figures to almost 1.14 against the greenback.

SPYields

(Source: Bloomberg)

Another reason to go short US equities at the moment could be a good strategy to hedge yourself against a volatility spike ahead of the FOMC meeting (June 14/15). If we look at the FedWatch Tool developed in the CME website, there is a 22.5% implied probability of a rate hike based on the CME 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

FedWatch

(Source: CME Group)

However, the odds are higher based on the last few speeches delivered by US policymakers and of course a quiet market. In her 30-minute Q&A session with Greg Mankiw at Harvard on Friday, Fed Chairman Yellen said that the economy was continuing to improve and that a ‘rate hike in coming months may be appropriate’. In my opinion, I think a June move is appropriate, especially if equities still trade above 2,000 until that meeting. In addition, if we look at the Eurodollar futures market, time deposits denominated in US dollars and held at banks outside of the United States, the June contract trades 99.28 (i.e. the implied rates is at 72bps). Eurodollar contracts are useful to look at as well as they are more liquid than Fed Funds futures.

The only reason I see for no rate hike this meeting is if we see another sharp sell off within the next couple of weeks.

Dollar pause: poor US fundamentals or overall disappointment on more global easing?

Since its high in mid-March last year, the US dollar has ‘stabilized’ vs. overall currencies; if we look at the US Dollar index (Source: Bloomberg, DXY index), it hit a high of 100.40 in March 13th then has been ranging between 92.50 and 100 over the past year. Now the question I have been asking myself is‘what is the main reason for this stagnation?’

USDIndex

(Source: Bloomberg) 

I strongly believe that one of the main reasons comes from looser-than-expected FOMC statements and a shift in expectations on more monetary policy tightening in the near future. If we look at the market, Fed Funds futures predict a much lower ST rates in the future compare to the Fed’s dot plot. Looking at the chart below, whereas the Fed officials see rates at around 1% and 2% by the end of 2016 and 2017 respectively, the market (Red line) predicts 50bps and 1%. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the market participants are right, but it looks to me that they are more ‘rational’ based on current market conditions and this spread between the Fed and the market may have created a dollar pause over the past year.

FedPlotvsMarket

(Source: Bloomberg)

The first reason that could explain why the Fed has been holding rates steady since last December would be the poor fundamentals we have seen lately (except for the unemployment rate currently at 4.9%). For instance, US GDP growth rate has been slowing over the past three quarters and came in at 1.4% for the last quarter of 2015 (vs. almost 4% in Q2). If we look at the latest core PCE deflator release (the inflation figure the Fed tracks), the index came in at 1.56% YoY in March, still far below the Fed’s ‘target’ of 2%. In addition, the economic data have been more than disappointing overall, which could explain the recent fly-to-quality and why yields are starting to plunge again (the 10Y YS yield trades currently at 1.8%, while the 30Y is at 2.66%).

Secondly, corporate profits have been plunging and printed a 7.8% fall in Q4 2015, the biggest decline since Q1 2011 (-9.2%) and the fourth decline in the last five quarters. If we look at chart below, we can see that the divergence between the S&P500 index and the 12-month forward earnings doesn’t work for too long and equities tend to be the one moving in general. You can see that in that case, equities are still overvalued based on this analysis and there is more potential downside coming in the future.

SPXFEPS

(Source: ZeroHedge)

The third and most important reason explaining this status quo – i.e. US dollar pause – would be the current global macro situation. Certainly, market participants have been recently disappointed by the recent news coming either from Japan (no additional QE see article) or the Eurozone and the loss of confidence in the ECB. On March 10th, Draghi announced the ECB Bazooka plan, where the officials decided to:

  • cut decrease the deposit refi and marginal lending rates to -0.4%, 0% and 0.25% respectively
  • Increase the QE from 60bn to 80bn Euros per month
  • Implement a four new target LTROs (TLTROs) each with maturity 4years
  • Include investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations clong the assets that are eligible for regular purchases

The effect on the market was minor; if we look at the chart below, the Euro increased in value against the greenback (green line) and the equity market stands at the same level since the announcement (Eurostoxx 50 index trading slightly below 3,000).

EUROstoxx

(Source: Bloomberg)

The sales-side research suggest that CBs should consider purchasing equities as well or taxing wealth (Deutsche Bank) as a intermediate step before implementing the Helicopter money strategy.

Despite a recent spike since the beginning of the year mainly driven by the recovery in oil prices (WTI spot increased from 26$ to 43$ per barrel), commodity prices are still trading at their lowest level since 1998 according to the Bloomberg BCOM index (see chart below). China’s (and other EM countries’) slowdown continue to weight on international finance putting a lot of export-driven countries into difficulty (or close to default). I personally believe that this situation will remain in the next 12 to 18 months as the emergence of a credit crisis in the EM market is not too far away.

CommodityPrices

(Source: Bloomberg)

Therefore, I think the global lack of easing will tend to stabilized the US dollar in the medium term; another rate hike from Yellen in one of the next two meetings is sort of priced in by the market, therefore only action from the rest of the world could start to bring interest into the US dollar. I would be careful of going short equities at the moment as USDJPY is very low and a response from the BoJ (more ETFs purchases) is kind of imminent if Kuroda wants to stop this current equity sell off and Yen purchases.

 

 

Only BoJ matters…

Back in September 2014, I wrote an article It is all about CBs where I showed different central banks’ balance sheet as a share of the country’s GDP, which I thought could help explain exchange rates better than some macro models.

As you can see it on the chart below, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has been expanding drastically over the past three years and now held a total of 410tr Yen in assets. For an economy of roughly 500tr Yen, the ratio BoJ’s asset – to – GDP stands now at 82% (vs 20 to 30% for central banks).

Chart 1. BoJ Assets (Source: Japan Macro Advisors)

BoJAssets

When you think about it, the BoJ currently holds:

  • 35% of the JGBs (a ratio that is expected to grow to 50% by the end of 2017 – see chart 2).
  • 55% of the country’s ETFs (Chart 3). The BoJ is currently purchasing 3.3tr Yen of ETFs on an annual basis; if it accelerates its program to an annual rate of 7tr Yen, the central bank could become the first shareholder in about 40 of the Nikkei 225’s companies by the end of 2017 according to Bloomberg’s calculations.

Chart 2. BoJ’s JGBs holdings (Source: Japan Macro Advisors)

JGBsHolding

Chart 3. BoJ ETFs holdings (Source: Bloomberg)

ETFsJapan

On January 29th, Kuroda announced that the central bank will adopted negative interest rate policy in order to revive growth (and inflation) in the world’s third-largest economy. Like in the Eurozone (and many countries in the world), the BoJ has been charging a fee to excess reserves that financial institutional place at the central bank over the past three months now. However it doesn’t seem that the results are effective: Japan CPI switched to negative territory in March (-0.1% YoY) and is on the verge on entering into a quintuple recession since the GFC (see chart 4).

Chart 4. Japan’s GDP growth rate (Source: Trading economics)

JapanGDP

It looks like the market was expecting another ‘move’ from the BoJ overnight, and was disappointed by the status quo. The Nikkei index dropped 1000 points to close at 16,666 and sits now on its 50-day SMA, while USDJPY (white line) crashed almost 4 figures to 108, bringing down SP500 futures (blue line) with him to 2075. Therefore, these moves can conclude that for Japan, today, ‘only’ the BoJ matters in terms of news and the best you can do to ‘invest’ is to frontrun what Kuroda is doing.

Chart 5. USDJPY and SP500 futures (Source: Bloomberg)

USDJPYSP500

Some analysts or traders see a buy on dips opportunity at the moment (at around 108), however I would wait ‘til the US opens to decide such a trade. The VIX index (see chart below) has been trending upward over the past few days, which means we could see a couple of volatile days and a fly-to-quality to safe havens such as the Yen (or the Euro as well).

Chart 6. VIX index (Source: Bloomberg)

VIXindex

Global Macro: trade on China’s weak signs and Draghi’s Will to Power

This article deals with a few current hot topics:

  • The main one gives an update on weakening signs of giant China
  • The second one reviews the ECB Thursday’s meeting, presented with a couple of FX positioning
  • The last one is on the debt ceiling debate and risk-off sentiment

China desperately flowing…

As I am looking at the current news in the market, there has been a lot of interesting topics to study over the past couple of months. I will first start this article with an update on China and its weakening economy. Since the Chinese ‘devaluation’ on August 11th, I have been focusing much more in the EM and Asian Market as I strongly believe that the developed world is not yet ready for a China & Co. slowdown. I heard an interesting analysis lately, which was sort of describing the assets that had performed since the PBoC action more than two months ago. As you can see it on the chart below, Gold prices (XAU spot) accelerated from 1,100 to a high of 1,185 reached on October 14th, and Bitcoin recovered from its low of 200 reached in late August and now trades at $285 a piece.

ChinaandBitcoinGold

(Source: Bloomberg)

One additional explanation that I have for Gold is that I believe that the 1,100 level could be an interesting floor for long-term investors interested in the currency of the last resort. The weak macro, loose monetary policy, low interest rates and more and more currency crisis in EM countries will tend to bring back gravity in Gold, especially if prices become interesting (below $1,100 per ounce) for long-term buyers.

Looking at the CSI 300 Index, we still stand quite far from the [lower] historical high of 5,380 reached in the beginning of June last year. Since then, as a response, we had a Chinese devaluation, the PBoC cutting the minimum home down payment for buyers in cities last month (September 30th) from 30% to 25% due to weak property investment, and then a few days ago the PBoC cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for all banks by 50bps to 17.50% and its benchmark lending rate by 25bps to 4.35%. Looking at all these actions concerns me on the health of the Chinese economy; it looks very artificial and speculative. In a late article, Steve Keen, a professor in economics explained that the Chinese private-debt-to-GDP ratio surged from 100% during the Great financial crisis to over 180% in the beginning of 2015, amassing the largest buildup of bad debt in history. Its addiction to over expand rapidly have left more than one in five homes vacant in China’s urban areas according to the Survey and Research for China Household Finance. Banks are well too exposed to equities and the housing market, and it looks that they have now started a similar decline as the US before 2008 and Japan before 1991. To give you an idea, the real estate was estimated to be at 6% of US GDP at the peak in 2005, whereas it represents roughly 20% of China’s GDP today.

ChinaPrivatedebt

(Source: Forbes article, Why China Had to Crash)

I wrote an article back last September where I mentioned that the Chinese economy will tend to slow down more quickly than analyst expect, therefore impacting the overall economy. We saw that GDP slide to 6.9% QoQ in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2009 and quite far from the 7.5%-8% projection in the beginning of this year.

Draghi’s Will To Power

One fascinating event this week was the ECB meeting on Thursday. Despite a status quo on its interest rate policy, leaving deposit rate at -0.2% and the MRO at 5bps, a few words from the ECB president drove immediately the market’s attention. He said exactly that ‘The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December policy meeting’, therefore implying that the current 1.1 trillion-euro program will be increased. As you can see it on the chart, EURUSD reacted quite sharply, declining from 1.1330 to a low of 1.0990 on Friday’s trading session, and sending equities – Euro Stoxx 50 Index – to a two-month high above 3,400. Italy 2-year yield was negative that day (hard to believe that it was trading above 7.5% in the end of November 2011).

ECBmeeting

(Source: Bloomberg)

 I am always curious and excited to see how a particular currency will fluctuate in this kind of important events (central banking meeting usually). One thing that I learned so far is to never be exposed against a central bank’s desire; you have two options, either stay out of it or be part of the trend.  I think EURUSD could continue to push to lower levels in the coming days, with the market slowly ‘swallowing’ Draghi’s comment. I think that the 1.0880 level as a first target is an interesting level with an entry level slightly below 1.1100 (stop above 1.1160).

USDJPY broke out of its two-month 119 – 121 in the middle of October down to almost 118, where it was considered as a buy-on-dip opportunity. It then levitated by 3 figures to 121.50 in the past couple of weeks spurred by a loose PBoC and ECB. The upside looks quite capped in the medium term if we don’t hear any news coming from the BoJ. The upside move on USDJPY looks almost over, 121.75 – 122 could be the key resistance level there.

USDJPYTrade

(Source: Bloomberg)

Potential volatility and risk-off sentiment coming from the debt ceiling debate

On overall, with US equities – SP500 index – quietly approaching its 2,100 key psychological resistance with a VIX slowly decreasing towards its 12.50 – 13 bargain level, I will keep an eye on the debt ceiling current debate in the US, which could trigger some risk-off sentiment in the next couple of weeks (i.e cap equities and USDJPY on the upside). Briefly, the Congress has to agree on raising the debt limit to a new high of 19.6tr USD proposed (from 18.1tr USD where it currently stands). The debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing obligations, and the current debt ceiling proposal’s deadline is November 3rd. No agreement would mean that the US government could default on its debt obligations, which could potentially increase the volatility in the market.

The chart below shows the increase of the debt ceiling since the early 1970s, after the Nixon Shock announcement which led to the end of Bretton Woods and the exponential expansion of credit.

USceiling

(Source: The Burning Platform)