Abstract: In this article, we will introduce another method for evaluating the ‘fair’ value of a currency: the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), a model which is widely used in practice. The BEER model was developed by Clark and MacDonald (1999) and estimates the fair value of currencies according to short, medium and long-run determinants. An important concept is that there is no prior theory for the choice of economic variables; hence, the choice of variables is based on economic intuition and data simplicity and availability.
We will also do an application of the BEER and run a Fixed-Effect panel regression on the G10 currencies, using the US Dollar as the base currency, and three widely used macroeconomic variables – inflation, terms-of-trade and interest rates – for our regression. We will conclude by commenting the results and making a brief analysis on the Euro (Spot rate versus BEER value).
LINK ===> BEER_Models