Gold: how far can the current trend go?

Since the beginning of the year, the commodity market has been regaining strength, and especially gold that has been up 23% since its mid-December low (slightly below 1,050 USD/ounce). As you can see it on the chart below, the recent spike in commodities can be explained by the dollar weakness we have seen over the past five months (DXY index in yellow line inverted vs. Gold in candlesticks). However, I am still convinced that Gold could continue to act as the ‘currency of the last resort’ (i.e. an insurance against the confidence on the monetary system) even if the US dollar is set to appreciate in the long term.

GoldUSD

(Source: Bloomberg)

As gold is traded primarily in dollars, many studies have showed that a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper and increases the demand for gold, which in the end pushes the price of the commodity higher. Therefore, Gold and US dollar should be negatively correlated. If we use HS spread analysis function in Bloomberg, we can see that the 1-month (20 Business days) correlation between Gold and DXY index (using the US Dollar index as a proxy of the dollar even if it’s mainly weighed in Euros, pounds and Yen) has been negative for most of the time over the past five years. However, this correlation can sometimes break down and turn positive for a small period of time.

GoldHSDXY

(Source: Bloomberg)

The question now that I am asking myself is to know the positive correlation between US dollar and Gold can last longer than just a week or two.

The reason why I think Gold is set to appreciate in the long term is coming from a long fat tail risk list that gets very concerning. In it, we could find the following events:

  • Japanese crisis in the bond market
  • Banking crisis in China coming from a rise in NPLs and a housing market collapse
  • Corporate default rates soaring in the US high-yield market
  • European Banking crisis

If one of those ‘black swan’ events rises in terms of probability, we would then see a sort risk-aversion environment with more demand for safe haven assets, such as US Treasuries or US Dollars. At the moment, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields both trade at 1.74% and 2.57% respectively, and a sudden risk-off sentiment could push LT US yields close to zero.

Academic studies have shown that there exists a cointegrating relation between gold and US real interest rates. If we stick with the assumption that inflation will remain low (i.e. close to zero) in the medium term (2-year period) based on the market’s expectation and that Treasury yields start to crater ‘once again’, an interest for gold could be a good alternative.

Tactical view on XAUUSD

Based on the chart below, it looks like the 50 SMA (purple line) has been acting as a strong support, however the momentum could continue in the future. The next psychological level stands at 1,300 on the upside, any break out could lead towards 1,325 then 1,350. On the downside, I see a strong support zone between 1,220 and 1,250 and could be a good entry point for a long term investment. The risk is if the US Dollar starts to appreciate to quickly based on this week’s FOMC ‘hawkish’ minutes with the market now starting to price at least a couple of rate hikes for 2016. For those looking for a more ST investment, a good psychological support on the downside to set up your stop stands below 1,200.

TechAnalysisGold

(Source: Bloomberg)

Dollar pause: poor US fundamentals or overall disappointment on more global easing?

Since its high in mid-March last year, the US dollar has ‘stabilized’ vs. overall currencies; if we look at the US Dollar index (Source: Bloomberg, DXY index), it hit a high of 100.40 in March 13th then has been ranging between 92.50 and 100 over the past year. Now the question I have been asking myself is‘what is the main reason for this stagnation?’

USDIndex

(Source: Bloomberg) 

I strongly believe that one of the main reasons comes from looser-than-expected FOMC statements and a shift in expectations on more monetary policy tightening in the near future. If we look at the market, Fed Funds futures predict a much lower ST rates in the future compare to the Fed’s dot plot. Looking at the chart below, whereas the Fed officials see rates at around 1% and 2% by the end of 2016 and 2017 respectively, the market (Red line) predicts 50bps and 1%. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the market participants are right, but it looks to me that they are more ‘rational’ based on current market conditions and this spread between the Fed and the market may have created a dollar pause over the past year.

FedPlotvsMarket

(Source: Bloomberg)

The first reason that could explain why the Fed has been holding rates steady since last December would be the poor fundamentals we have seen lately (except for the unemployment rate currently at 4.9%). For instance, US GDP growth rate has been slowing over the past three quarters and came in at 1.4% for the last quarter of 2015 (vs. almost 4% in Q2). If we look at the latest core PCE deflator release (the inflation figure the Fed tracks), the index came in at 1.56% YoY in March, still far below the Fed’s ‘target’ of 2%. In addition, the economic data have been more than disappointing overall, which could explain the recent fly-to-quality and why yields are starting to plunge again (the 10Y YS yield trades currently at 1.8%, while the 30Y is at 2.66%).

Secondly, corporate profits have been plunging and printed a 7.8% fall in Q4 2015, the biggest decline since Q1 2011 (-9.2%) and the fourth decline in the last five quarters. If we look at chart below, we can see that the divergence between the S&P500 index and the 12-month forward earnings doesn’t work for too long and equities tend to be the one moving in general. You can see that in that case, equities are still overvalued based on this analysis and there is more potential downside coming in the future.

SPXFEPS

(Source: ZeroHedge)

The third and most important reason explaining this status quo – i.e. US dollar pause – would be the current global macro situation. Certainly, market participants have been recently disappointed by the recent news coming either from Japan (no additional QE see article) or the Eurozone and the loss of confidence in the ECB. On March 10th, Draghi announced the ECB Bazooka plan, where the officials decided to:

  • cut decrease the deposit refi and marginal lending rates to -0.4%, 0% and 0.25% respectively
  • Increase the QE from 60bn to 80bn Euros per month
  • Implement a four new target LTROs (TLTROs) each with maturity 4years
  • Include investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations clong the assets that are eligible for regular purchases

The effect on the market was minor; if we look at the chart below, the Euro increased in value against the greenback (green line) and the equity market stands at the same level since the announcement (Eurostoxx 50 index trading slightly below 3,000).

EUROstoxx

(Source: Bloomberg)

The sales-side research suggest that CBs should consider purchasing equities as well or taxing wealth (Deutsche Bank) as a intermediate step before implementing the Helicopter money strategy.

Despite a recent spike since the beginning of the year mainly driven by the recovery in oil prices (WTI spot increased from 26$ to 43$ per barrel), commodity prices are still trading at their lowest level since 1998 according to the Bloomberg BCOM index (see chart below). China’s (and other EM countries’) slowdown continue to weight on international finance putting a lot of export-driven countries into difficulty (or close to default). I personally believe that this situation will remain in the next 12 to 18 months as the emergence of a credit crisis in the EM market is not too far away.

CommodityPrices

(Source: Bloomberg)

Therefore, I think the global lack of easing will tend to stabilized the US dollar in the medium term; another rate hike from Yellen in one of the next two meetings is sort of priced in by the market, therefore only action from the rest of the world could start to bring interest into the US dollar. I would be careful of going short equities at the moment as USDJPY is very low and a response from the BoJ (more ETFs purchases) is kind of imminent if Kuroda wants to stop this current equity sell off and Yen purchases.